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Mesoscale Discussion 1915
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MD 1915 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071944Z - 072145Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. ONLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TULSA TO THE NORTH
   SIDE OF THE OKC AREA TO NW OF ALTUS...WITH THE FRONTAL SURFACE
   GRADUALLY SLOPING NWD/NWWD TOWARD A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE OF
   400-1000 J/KG IS PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL/WRN OK
   PER MODIFIED 12Z NORMAN RAOB. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF FRONTAL ASCENT AND ALONG A
   PRE-FRONTAL HOT-THERMAL AXIS ALONG WHICH TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
   100-105F. HOWEVER...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF
   FACTORS: /1/ DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT SUPPORTING RELATIVELY MEAGER INSTABILITY AMIDST WEAK DEEP
   SHEAR...AND /2/ WEAK POST-FRONTAL INHIBITION BEING JUXTAPOSED WITH
   THE ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR. AS SUCH...ONLY SPORADIC
   INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40F.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34869620 34399727 34419845 34919960 35559982 36169896
               36469757 36399679 35979623 34869620 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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