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Mesoscale Discussion 1916
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 072009Z - 072115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR-TERM...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR FOR
   WHICH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SVR THREAT WILL
   INCREASE LATER -- ESPECIALLY AFTER 2300Z IN N AR -- WHICH WILL
   LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY WW ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   CNTRL/N-CNTRL AR ALONG SUBTLE SFC CONFLUENCE AXES...WITH THE
   STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL AR PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   MINOR MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION. MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG AMIDST
   GENERALLY 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL YIELD A THREAT FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
   IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED FORCING
   MECHANISM FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED.
   HOWEVER...LATER IN THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY AFTER 2300Z IN N AR --
   FRONT-RELATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH AN
   INCREASING SVR THREAT...LIKELY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35879049 34969091 34389182 34319345 34799431 35409422
               35679361 36119311 36369266 36419193 36379093 35879049 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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