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Mesoscale Discussion 1917
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/IND...SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...630...
   
   VALID 072022Z - 072115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   628...630...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM NERN
   MO TO CNTRL IL...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SWRN OH. PARTS OF WW 628 WILL LIKELY
   BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW PRIOR TO 21Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE YIELDING
   RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM NERN MO TO CNTRL IL. 20Z
   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING COLD FRONT FROM JLN
   TO SPI...INTERSECTING A W/E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO IND TO 25 S
   DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
   OCCURRING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
   BUOYANCY/SHEAR IS ROBUST IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH TSTMS PERSISTING
   ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AFTER 22Z...A REPLACEMENT WW APPEARS TO
   BE THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   40638793 40378712 40078565 39768438 39608390 39138398
               38918426 38938544 38928773 39178943 39359012 39559032
               39939032 40289028 40759010 40978955 41008903 40638793 
   
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Page last modified: September 07, 2012
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