Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1918
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1918 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN
   TN...NERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 072044Z - 072245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN HALF OF
   WW630 AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO N-CNTRL AR ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   AXES...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT PERHAPS OFFERED BY A
   SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD/ESEWD
   AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORTED BY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
   HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
   DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
   REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD
   UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AMIDST INCREASING DEEP SHEAR...IN WHICH
   CASE ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE E/SE OF
   WW630. IF THIS OCCURS...SVR WIND/HAIL COULD AFFECT THE AREA...WITH
   AN INCREASING THREAT INTO THIS EVENING AS FRONT-RELATED CONVECTION
   EVENTUALLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   37998720 36698812 35928902 35649007 35959095 36799099
               37029078 37209033 37478997 37728974 37978944 38398869
               38398768 37998720 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 07, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities