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Mesoscale Discussion 1920
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/NORTHWEST
   AR/EASTERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630...
   
   VALID 072306Z - 080030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 630 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL...IN ADDITION TO
   NORTHWEST AR/EASTERN OK.
   
   DISCUSSION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT /AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR
   OR SOUTH OF ST LOUIS/...A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE CONTINUES TO
   EVOLVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL AMID
   INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TSTMS. HERE...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED/MORE
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL
   AS OF 2245Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SOME 50-75 MILES AHEAD OF A
   MORE-ORGANIZED/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD
   AT AROUND 45 KT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR INTO EASTERN
   OK...WITH THIS QLCS FEATURING A NORTHEAST-PERIPHERAL VORTEX MOVING
   INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO IN VICINITY OF LACLEDE/WRIGHT/TEXAS COUNTIES
   AS OF 2245Z. RECENTLY MEASURED SEVERE/NEAR-SEVERE GUSTS INCLUDE 49
   KT AT FAYETTEVILLE AR /2225Z/.
   
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /THROUGH 00Z-01Z/...SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
   MO/SOUTHWEST IL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHWEST AR/EASTERN OK...ALTHOUGH
   A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED VORTEX. ULTIMATELY...THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE PRE-QLCS TSTMS WITH ADDITIONAL UPSCALE
   GROWTH AND LIKELY SOUTHEASTWARD-PERSISTENCE OF A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT INTO RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 632.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/07/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35039581 36069443 37219247 38239083 39018965 38988904
               38128941 37129032 36279146 34709468 35039581 
   
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Page last modified: September 08, 2012
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