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Mesoscale Discussion 1921 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...CNTRL KY
AND SW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631...
VALID 080039Z - 080145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
E/SE. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE 1-2 HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH EXTENSION OR NEW
WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY.
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. HAIL AND WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...LATEST WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM IND AND PAH SUGGEST VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES IN THE LOWEST
0-3 KM WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-250 M2/S2.
THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WOULD BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF BOWING SEGMENTS OR WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL STABILIZATION...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DECREASE AS ONLY A
WEAK COLD POOL IS EVIDENT IN SFC OBSERVATIONS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE FURTHER S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN IND/CNTRL KY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..LEITMAN.. 09/08/2012
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39558955 40258255 39218257 38238409 37678535 37658663
38478954 39558955
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