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Mesoscale Discussion 1921
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MD 1921 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...CNTRL KY
   AND SW OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631...
   
   VALID 080039Z - 080145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
   E/SE. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED OVER THE 1-2 HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH EXTENSION OR NEW
   WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY.
   
   DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
   E/SE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. HAIL AND WIND WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...LATEST WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE
   FROM IND AND PAH SUGGEST VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES IN THE LOWEST
   0-3 KM WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-250 M2/S2.
   THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WOULD BE ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF BOWING SEGMENTS OR WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR.
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
   WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE WATCH
   AREA. AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...RESULTING IN LOW
   LEVEL STABILIZATION...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DECREASE AS ONLY A
   WEAK COLD POOL IS EVIDENT IN SFC OBSERVATIONS.
   
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE FURTHER S ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN IND/CNTRL KY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 09/08/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   39558955 40258255 39218257 38238409 37678535 37658663
               38478954 39558955 
   
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Page last modified: September 08, 2012
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