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Mesoscale Discussion 1922
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/FAR SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY TO
   WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630...632...
   
   VALID 080124Z - 080300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   630...632...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO LATE EVENING
   WITH AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM SOUTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE
   TN...AND NORTHERN MS. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WANE ACROSS
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH 630...WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS 632 UNTIL 05Z...WITH
   NEWLY ISSUED WATCH 633 TO THE EAST OF WW 632 /UNTIL 07Z/.
   
   DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF A 500-MILE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
   EXTENDS FROM THE WABASH/LOWER OH RIVER VICINITIES OF SOUTHWEST
   INDIANA/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHEAST MO/FAR WESTERN KY
   SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR I-40 IN AR/JUST NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK AS OF
   0115Z. A DEGREE OF COOLING HAS OCCURRED POST-SUNSET WELL AHEAD OF
   THE SQUALL LINE...BUT THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/SQUALL LINE AIRMASS
   NONETHELESS REMAINS MOIST /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE
   ACROSS MUCH OF KY/FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO TN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   ADJUSTED 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE
   INDICATIVE OF AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. 
   
   WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND CINH WILL
   GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME...THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL
   LINE AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR/LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL HELP MAINTAIN
   A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN AR AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL KY AS WELL WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...AND EVENTUALLY
   NORTHERN MS/PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN AL THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY IN
   THE OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/08/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   34539361 35839150 38118866 38118722 36568681 34458857
               34539361 
   
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Page last modified: September 08, 2012
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