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Mesoscale Discussion 1924
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MD 1924 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH TO WESTERN
   PORTIONS OF WV/PA/NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 080457Z - 080700Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...WHILE SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z FOR PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL KY/SOUTHERN OH...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   COULD BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY/EASTERN
   OH...AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WV/PA/NY. DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY
   AND SOUTHWEST-CENTRAL-NORTHEAST OH AS OF 0445Z. A 51 KT WIND GUST
   WAS RECENTLY /421Z/ MEASURED IN CINCINNATI. THIS PORTION OF THE
   SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...WITH
   PRE-QLCS TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY /OR EVEN RISING IN A FEW
   INSTANCES/ OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH 2-3MB/2HR SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS OTHERWISE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OH AS OF 04Z.  
   
   GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN
   INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
   SHEAR/DEEPENING PHASE OF THE SURFACE LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE
   INFLUENCES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SUSTENANCE OR EVEN INTENSIFICATION OF
   THE SQUALL LINE AS IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
   BE THE CASE EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL /ALBEIT INCREASING/
   BUOYANCY AS A MOIST INFLUX OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO OCCUR FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
   STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
   VORTICES.
   
   ..GUYER/HART.. 09/08/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   37948551 39528425 40728334 41818139 42817886 40568012
               37838231 37188374 37948551 
   
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Page last modified: September 08, 2012
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