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Mesoscale Discussion 1925
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MD 1925 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...NRN WV...WRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 080900Z - 081000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE
   MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS
   THE LINE MOVES INTO CNTRL PA BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON HOW THE LINE
   ACTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A FINE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR THE
   PA-OH STATE-LINE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX AND SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE HAS SHOWN SOME
   INCREASED ORGANIZATION WITH LIGHTNING INCREASING AND SOME
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES WITHIN THE LINE. THIS IS LIKELY A
   RESULT OF THE STRONG FORCING AND COULD ALSO BE A RESULT OF AN
   ENHANCED IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO WRN AND
   CNTRL PA...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 250
   J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE LINE COULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE
   CONVECTION REACHES A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CNTRL PA
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FOR THIS
   REASON...THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WW ISSUANCE
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS PA AND NRN WV
   EARLY THIS MORNING.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/08/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   42047904 42027980 41898040 41458050 40708036 39248072
               39028018 39497868 40537783 41667817 42047904 
   
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Page last modified: September 08, 2012
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