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Mesoscale Discussion 2212 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX INTO NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693...
VALID 251823Z - 251930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
AS THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THE WW AREA AS A QLCS PROGRESSES EWD.
AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE QLCS MAY BE CLEARED FROM THE WW.
MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE WW SUCH THAT A TORNADO THREAT EXISTS
/REF MD 2210/. A TORNADO WW WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS HAS FORMED RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE CLEARLY DEMARCATED ON 18Z WV
IMAGERY ACROSS E TX. AS THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND
CONVECTION BECOMES NEAR SURFACE-BASED...A COINCIDENT STRENGTHENING
OF DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL AID IN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE WW AREA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN LA
REFLECT GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE WW /REF MCD 2210/...WITH A STRONG COUPLET RECENTLY NOTED OVER
VERNON PARISH JUST S OF SVR WW 693.
..DISPIGNA.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31439254 31379312 32029312 32769295 33069309 33469121
32479101 31929118 31169162 31499220 31439254
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