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Mesoscale Discussion 69
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO N CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 291637Z - 291730Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO NNEWD INTO SRN OK. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   VERY STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER
   DUE TO PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER E. HOWEVER...OVERALL
   LAPSE RATE PROFILES ARE STEEPER NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND HEATING
   WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS.
   
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
   MATURE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS AS
   STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD.
   
   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   30409988 30600050 31010057 32369928 33709830 34219767
               34029700 33499650 32919642 32569649 31309743 30799821
               30409988 
   
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