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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN
   IL...N-CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 291754Z - 291930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL
   OK...WHILE LEADING WAA AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ASSOCIATED
   WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
   A LEWP STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER HICKORY/BENTON
   COUNTIES MO IS TRACKING ENEWD AROUND 50 KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW6
   AROUND 19Z IF IT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION. TRANSIENT
   MESOCYCLONES HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE...AND ADDITIONAL
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES -- BOWS/SUPERCELLS -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN SEMI-DISCRETE LEADING CONVECTION.
   THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVER 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 375 M2/S2
   OF EFFECTIVE SRH PER 18Z SGF RAOB. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
   OFFSET ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEPICTED BY THE RAOB. AS SUCH...DMGG
   WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING AFTER 19Z.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   38929249 39739180 39989086 39678985 38088952 36879004
               35869156 35909324 37629260 38929249 
   
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