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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL/NWRN
   AR...S-CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...
   
   VALID 292131Z - 292300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
   REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN
   OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
   STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. VWP DATA AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE
   0-1-KM SRH VALUES OF 325-400 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MESOVORTICES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS
   CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LSX RDA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
   LINE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM
   E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO WITHIN A REGION OF RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY OF
   THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE AND SFC-BASED
   CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROPENSITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES
   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH EVOLUTION WAS EARLIER
   DETECTED BY SRX WSR-88D DATA WITH A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED FROM
   SEQUOYAH COUNTY OK INTO CRAWFORD/WASHINGTON COUNTIES AR. THIS
   PARTICULAR STORM MAY CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH A THREAT FOR
   MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NWRN AR. SIMILAR
   ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE TO ITS EAST.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 6 WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   SQUALL LINE BY WFO TULSA TO ADDRESS THE NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. THE
   SVR THREAT WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
   SQUALL LINE.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   38349162 39459077 39419027 39138982 37979023 37019129
               36199152 35409209 35349363 35399519 35779515 36189462
               36449406 36819332 37469255 38349162 
   
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