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Mesoscale Discussion 78
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
   
   VALID 292351Z - 300145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS FORMING SWD ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD POSE A
   RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UNTIL THE FRONT
   PROGRESSES INTO WW 10. THEREAFTER...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE PRESSURE RISES HAVE INCREASED ALONG PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT FROM 50 SW PRX TO NEAR SAT. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS AIDED IN UPTICK IN POST-FRONTAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM NAVARRO TO WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY
   BACKED/PARALLEL NATURE OF THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGEST THIS TYPE OF
   DEVELOPMENT WOULD LARGELY POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
   HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING AS 700 MB STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO A
   MORE WLY COMPONENT...ACTIVITY MAY SURGE E OF THE FRONT WITH A
   CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY INTO WW 10.
   
   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   33489509 33399445 32709381 31819413 30919473 30309593
               30249685 30389716 30709693 33149559 33489509 
   
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