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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN KY...SWRN IND...SRN/WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 300008Z - 300215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING
   EWD...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT THE
   STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...A WEAKLY FORCED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
   FROM WRN IL AND SERN MO INTO CNTRL/SRN IL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   THIS LINE OF STORMS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
   EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN IL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND INTO NERN AR.
   DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION ARE IN THE MID 50S WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS W-CNTRL IL AND ERN IND AND IN THE
   UPPER 60S ACROSS SERN MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN KY. DESPITE THESE
   UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS...A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850
   AND 700 MB IS KEEPING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY VERY LOW /MLCAPE LESS
   THAN 100 J PER KG/. AS A RESULT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST THE SAME INTENSITY AS
   CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
   LITTLE INFLUENCE AS STRENGTHENING LLJ COUNTERS ANY TEMPERATURE
   DECREASE WITH WAA AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
   CURRENT OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND FORECAST...ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS
   ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MERGES WITH CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
   AHEAD OF IT. COVERAGE OF SVR WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL.
   
   HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS NRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN
   MO...SRN IL...AND SWRN KY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE SVR TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED
   TO STRENGTHEN...REACHING 70 KT AT 850 MB. 00Z LZK SOUNDING CONFIRMS
   THIS WITH 70 KT REPORTED AT 850 MB AND 700 MB. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
   HAVE SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
   IL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM
   THE SW.
   
   ..MOSIER/HART.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   39078959 39808913 40448859 40808803 40508710 39918669
               38868682 37208711 36738788 36518897 36579047 36689093
               37109078 37949022 39078959 
   
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