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Mesoscale Discussion 85
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IND...NWRN OH...FAR SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 12...
   
   VALID 300505Z - 300630Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 12 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY EXTEND N/NE OF WW 12 ...BUT IS
   NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE/PERVASIVE AS FARTHER S IN SRN IND.
   THUS...WW EXTENSION AND/OR NEW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN WITH NRN
   EXTENT ALONG AN EXTENSIVE QLCS...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE
   NEAR LAF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD
   OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS AREAS FARTHER
   S WITH MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS N OF WW 12. MODIFIED FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUOYANCY IS MEAGER AND ROOTED FROM ELEVATED
   PARCELS. NEVERTHELESS...EXTREME KINEMATIC FIELDS /FLOW AOA 80 KT
   ABOVE 1 KM AGL IN IND VWP DATA/ COULD YIELD ISOLATED SWATHS OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF OBSERVED CONVECTIVE WIND
   GUSTS AOA 25 KT ROUGHLY N OF 40 DEG LATITUDE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL
   MAY REMAIN MARGINAL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   39338552 39248610 39238665 39358711 39428738 39718721
               40648680 41038662 41588605 41898559 41948527 41868458
               41618432 40808434 39788488 39338552 
   
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