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Mesoscale Discussion 86
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA...WRN/CENTRAL OH AND NORTH CENTRAL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 300645Z - 300745Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REST OF ERN
   INDIANA INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OH...AND NORTH CENTRAL KY.  DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES SHOWED THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF AN EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE
   WAS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OH UP
   TO 250 J/KG.  DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMBINED WITH A
   STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY /UP 80 KT
   AT THE SDF WSR-88D/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY IN INDIANA /MEASURED
   56 KT AT BMG AT 623Z/ AND AN ESTIMATED 61 KT WIND GUST IN HENDRICKS
   COUNTY IND AT 610Z.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING ACROSS
   WRN OH WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2.  GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN
   OF THE SLY LLJ...THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE FOR A
   TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   40658471 40738395 41018380 40938327 40708293 40418271
               39668301 38928361 38408433 38478490 38678530 39348538
               39928501 40278480 40658471 
   
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