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Mesoscale Discussion 94
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND ERN EXTENT OF MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...16...18...
   
   VALID 301343Z - 301445Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   14...16...18...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES THIS
   MORNING FROM SERN MS...ACROSS MUCH OF SRN...CENTRAL AND NERN
   AL...AND INTO THE ERN EXTENT OF MIDDLE TN.  WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AT 14Z AS STORMS MOVE E OF THIS TORNADO WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
   THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN
   UNCAPPED AND MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE BHM AND SLIDELL 12Z SOUNDINGS/. 60-65 KT
   SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA AND BENEATH
   STRENGTHENING SSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EXTENT OF THE
   UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT.  MEANWHILE...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
   CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF
   300-500 M2/S2 PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BHM AND
   SLIDELL.
   
   IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED LEWPS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS IN AL TO
   SERN MS...DISCRETE STORMS WITHIN CONFLUENT BANDS ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.  THE
   AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH THESE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
   QLCS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   36138487 36128454 34858559 33618535 32188497 31768516
               31538625 31798644 31818689 31258744 31058835 30658847
               30688942 31158938 32168877 33268770 34888612 35428574
               36138487 
   
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