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Mesoscale Discussion 98
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AL...PARTS OF NE GA AND THE WRN
   CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18...19...
   
   VALID 301750Z - 301915Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   17...18...19...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...WATCH 17 LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.  SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF WW 19
   WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED.  WITH
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 19Z IN
   PORTIONS OF WW 18...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES MAY BE CONSOLIDATED
   INTO ONE NEW WW.
   
   DISCUSSION......WRN CAROLINAS...
   STRONGEST HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
   TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS INTO
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN
   SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   ...THROUGH 20-22Z.  THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MORE VIGOROUS PORTION OF THE ONGOING
   PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH COULD STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
   THE SMOKY/BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.  WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
   DESTABILIZATION COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS IN EXCESS OF
   60 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH
   THE SQUALL LINE.  IT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...WITH A MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO
   EXTREME NEAR SURFACE SHEAR.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   34868106 32798335 31888487 31988627 32378647 33468562
               35038406 35728324 36378149 36228024 34868106 
   
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