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Mesoscale Discussion 99
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN PA...A LARGE PART OF
   VA/MD...WASHINGTON DC...PORTIONS OF ERN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...
   
   VALID 301754Z - 301930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW20. THE SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   AREA FROM THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND THAT ACCOMPANIES A NE/SW-ORIENTED WIND-SHIFT
   AXIS FROM S-CNTRL PA INTO SWRN VA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. REGIONAL
   RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT LOCATED WELL TO THE W. WHILE A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING THE BAND...IT SHOULD NOT
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED 35-45-KT WIND GUSTS IN THE
   NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
   CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY EXTEND NEWD
   INTO PARTS OF THE MCD AREA -- ESPECIALLY FROM S-CNTRL VA INTO SERN
   PA -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ..COHEN.. 01/30/2013
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   37138159 37848067 38567980 39467893 40577776 40717712
               40577638 40087598 39017622 37397742 36807878 36607986
               36648130 37138159 
   
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