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Mesoscale Discussion 100
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL NC...SWRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 302021Z - 302145Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE SVR POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN VA PER RECENT
   LIGHTNING TRENDS AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY...OVER THE ERN
   FRINGES OF A BROAD NE/SW-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION.
   CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT -- AS EVIDENCED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS
   OF 2-3.5 MB PER 2 HRS -- WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION E OF
   THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER VWP
   DATA...QLCS SEGMENTS WITH SVR WINDS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NE WITH A
   THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. IF AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   CONTINUES TO BE NOTED...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   36078077 36268164 36938105 37857979 37487896 36867883
               36227962 36078077 
   
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Page last modified: January 30, 2013
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