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Mesoscale Discussion 101
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NRN/CNTRL NC...SWRN
   MD...WASHINGTON DC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 302106Z - 302300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF
   RECENTLY ISSUED WW22.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS UPSTREAM ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
   INCREASING SVR THREAT AHEAD OF WW22. DESPITE VERY MEAGER BUOYANCY
   INDICATED PER 18Z IAD RAOB...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL WARMING HAS OCCURRED
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM-SECTOR THETA-E ADVECTION -- SFC TEMPS NOW
   IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA -- TO THE E/S OF A
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD. AND...WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
   ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS...MODEST WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY
   AMIDST VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP DATA.
   AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE FROM SWRN
   VA...AND/OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS COULD
   EXTEND NEWD. EITHER WAY...THE SVR THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
   NE/E OF WW22 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   36228003 36267922 36837858 37647841 37887940 38417919
               38757871 39047740 38937680 38227685 37067738 36107808
               35737885 35577971 35698028 36038034 36228003 
   
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Page last modified: January 30, 2013
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