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Mesoscale Discussion 102 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...
VALID 302113Z - 302315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...EAST OF WW 21...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A NEW WW MAY
NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ONE MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
50-70 KT 850 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH...SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA. TO THE EAST OF THIS
AXIS...LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING/MIXING IS LIMITING INSTABILITY. SO...IT APPEARS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
THIS AXIS...WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
COLUMBIA SC AREA INTO THE 00-01Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 01/30/2013
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31378445 33228362 34488262 35148193 35448061 34518090
33408186 32158275 31148380 30968412 31378445
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