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Mesoscale Discussion 102
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...
   
   VALID 302113Z - 302315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT...EAST OF WW 21...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A NEW WW MAY
   NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ONE MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSE
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   50-70 KT 850 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH...SHIFTING
   SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA.  TO THE EAST OF THIS
   AXIS...LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMING/MIXING IS LIMITING INSTABILITY.  SO...IT APPEARS THE
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF
   THIS AXIS...WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADOES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
   COLUMBIA SC AREA INTO THE 00-01Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31378445 33228362 34488262 35148193 35448061 34518090
               33408186 32158275 31148380 30968412 31378445 
   
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Page last modified: January 30, 2013
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