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Mesoscale Discussion 103
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA INTO SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 302231Z - 302330Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND SC.
   
   DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE /WITH SOME LEADING
   SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS GA/ HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASING SIGNS OF
   ORGANIZATION/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH
   SOME HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY/COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS MAY BE TIED
   TO THE EASTWARD-SPREAD OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST
   REGION. AS A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE
   GULF OF MEXICO /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...AMPLE FORCING/VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SOME
   SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN OTHERWISE DOMINANT QLCS. DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
   ACROSS NORTH FL INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST GA AND SC.
   
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 01/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29968539 30748490 30728408 31948337 33518258 33658162
               32808100 31148233 29998356 29968539 
   
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Page last modified: January 30, 2013
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