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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NC AND SOUTHWEST VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...
   
   VALID 310009Z - 310115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
   ACROSS WW 22. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WATCH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER
   THIS EVENING.
   
   DISCUSSION...AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE
   NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER /0-6KM 70+
   KT/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. RADAR
   TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN INCREASING CORES ACROSS
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. THESE CELLS WERE LIKELY BEING
   ENHANCED ALONG AN EWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO A
   WARM/MOIST AIR MASS. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO
   ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
   NEGATIVELY TILTED...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS
   WILL SURGE E/NEWD. ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN
   LARGER SCALE FLOW WAS EVIDENT IN EVENING WATER VAPOR AND CURRENTLY
   MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC...AND THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WW AREA THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   OTHERWISE...DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR.
   
   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 01/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   37858006 37837828 37567825 36637864 36237921 36017981
               36018153 37858006 
   
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Page last modified: January 31, 2013
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