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Mesoscale Discussion 105
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/EAST-SOUTHEAST GA TO SC/PIEDMONT NC
   AND SOUTHEAST VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...23...
   
   VALID 310056Z - 310230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21...23...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCHES 21/23 CONTINUE...WITH A PERSISTENT RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM PARTS OF NORTH
   FL/EAST-SOUTHEAST GA INTO SC/NC. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED BY AROUND MID-EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
   SOUTHEAST VA.
   
   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOVE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SIGNS OF GRADUAL
   ACCELERATION...AS IT EXTENDS FROM UPSTATE NC/SC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AS
   OF 0030Z. AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...NEAR 60/LOWER 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS ARE COMMON AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD /NEAR 70 F AT 00Z/
   IN THE WARM SECTOR...COINCIDENT WITH 2-3 MB/2-HR PRESSURE FALLS. AS
   HEIGHT FALLS STEADILY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN
   CONCERT WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
   WIND FIELD WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS /LOWEST 1-3 KM/ TO/ABOVE 70 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/VA...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND
   00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
   /SUCH AS 00Z GSO RAOB/ AND ONLY LIMITED LIGHTNING...ROBUST NATURE OF
   THE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE WELL-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
   LINEAR STRUCTURES INCLUDING SMALL BOWS/EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES.
   THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GA...WHILE OTHERWISE
   POTENTIALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC /AND EVENTUALLY
   SOUTHEAST VA/ THIS EVENING VIA WHAT MAY BE A SHARPENING/CONTINUALLY
   ACCELERATING LINEAR SQUALL LINE/CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29938416 31758313 36068053 36517756 35287784 33767971
               32408134 30118262 29938416 
   
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Page last modified: January 31, 2013
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