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Mesoscale Discussion 107
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 310206Z - 310300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION TONIGHT.
   HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION APPROACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA HAS
   SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING RECENTLY. AS THIS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO TRACK E/NE...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER FLOW /75+ KT 0-6KM
   SHEAR/. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. 
   WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS SE PA/SRN NJ INTO DE HAS STARTED TO RECOVER
   SOME FROM EARLY SHOWERS/STORMS...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY WEAKER FURTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER TROUGH.
   ADDITIONALLY...00Z WAL RAOB SHOWED POORER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO
   THOSE AT IAD. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
   LATE THIS EVENING. HENCE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
   DOWNSTREAM OF WW 24.
   
   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 01/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...
   
   LAT...LON   40257566 40327497 40077436 39577418 38167489 37897528
               37917587 38357623 39137609 39957585 40257566 
   
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Page last modified: January 31, 2013
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