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Mesoscale Discussion 109
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...26...
   
   VALID 310342Z - 310515Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25...26...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCHES 25/26 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z/06Z...WITH
   CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ACROSS COASTAL
   SC INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SOUTHEAST VA. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED FOR REMAINING PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC/SOUTHEAST VA WITHIN THE
   HOUR.
   
   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA/NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL SC AS
   OF 0315Z. WHILE OVERALL CAPE IS LOW...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
   RELATIVELY MILD/MOIST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR 70F AS OF 03Z IN THE PRESENCE
   OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EVEN WHILE LINE-EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS
   ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW WITH LITTLE/IF ANY CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING...A
   MODEST INCREASE/SUSTENANCE OF MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN
   NOTED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NC
   PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN VA...WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS OTHERWISE
   REMAINING COMMON WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. EVEN WHILE NEAR-SURFACE
   BUOYANCY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL /A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG OR
   LESS/...ROBUST NATURE OF THE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROMOTE A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH NC/WAKEFIELD VA ARE
   INDICATIVE OF EXTREMELY STRONG 75-90 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
   WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
   
   LAT...LON   37337864 37817613 36087645 34217834 31728128 34278009
               36037928 37337864 
   
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Page last modified: January 31, 2013
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