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Mesoscale Discussion 118
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FAR WRN
   FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071223Z - 071400Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS FROM FAR SRN MS EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW SOUTH OF GULFPORT
   MS WITH A WARM FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING ENEWD ALONG THE COAST OF AL
   AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
   JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F. THE
   CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS. ALSO...THE LINE
   OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40 TO 55 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET. THEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE MAY ENABLE THE STORMS TO BECOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE. AS THE LINE MOVES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
   MS...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 02/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30588724 30338709 30128726 30038772 29988834 29968884
               30048911 30168920 30478889 30638794 30588724 
   
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Page last modified: February 07, 2013
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