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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071644Z - 071845Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
   COASTAL FL PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY AFTER 1730Z. AT THIS TIME OVERALL
   THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
   LOW LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EWD TO NEAR
   APALACHICOLA FL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE
   CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD
   PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND THE
   WARM FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND...MAYBE
   AS FAR NORTH AS BAY...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. SLY 50+ KT LLJ
   WILL MIGRATE THROUGH WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
   AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT 0-2 KM
   HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND A RISK FOR
   TORNADOES PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO WILL INCREASE INLAND AS THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE...BUT SMALL WARM SECTOR MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER NWD.
   
   ..DIAL/HART.. 02/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29628508 30048552 30298543 30278466 29958438 29628508 
   
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Page last modified: February 07, 2013
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