|
Mesoscale Discussion 119 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071644Z - 071845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL FL PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY AFTER 1730Z. AT THIS TIME OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EWD TO NEAR
APALACHICOLA FL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD
PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND THE
WARM FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND...MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS BAY...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. SLY 50+ KT LLJ
WILL MIGRATE THROUGH WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT 0-2 KM
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND A RISK FOR
TORNADOES PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SOME RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL INCREASE INLAND AS THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT SMALL WARM SECTOR MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER NWD.
..DIAL/HART.. 02/07/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29628508 30048552 30298543 30278466 29958438 29628508
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|