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Mesoscale Discussion 121
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE GEORGIA...EXTREME SRN  SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 080019Z - 080145Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
   NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z.  THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR
   PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE BASED MOIST/NEAR
   SATURATED LAYER MAY EXIST BENEATH MODESTLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...NEAR AND NORTH OF A 50-70+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE
   OF THE ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SURFACE
   BASED AS THEY APPROACH GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z.
   AND...IF THIS OCCURS...HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   FLOW ARE SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
   SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO.
   
   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 02/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   32088241 32488206 32588150 32128070 31418107 30878146
               30788208 31078262 31548252 31838247 32088241 
   
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Page last modified: February 08, 2013
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