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Mesoscale Discussion 139 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ECNTRL LA THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101653Z - 101830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED TO INCLUDE
SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MS AND A PORTION OF SERN LA. SOME OF THE COUNTIES
CURRENTLY IN WW 31 OVER PORTIONS OF ERN LA MAY BE REDEFINED INTO THE
NEW WW. PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SWRN MS
INTO NERN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SQUALL LINE THAT STRETCHES SWWD
INTO SERN TX. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST WITH THAT
PORTION OF THE LINE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO INFLUX OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING INTO WCNTRL MS IS NORTH OF WARM FRONT
WHERE THE SFC LAYER IS MORE STABLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL
POSE AN INITIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES...TORNADO THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD INTO SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON.
..DIAL/MEAD.. 02/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31489195 32379081 33078977 32408894 31538973 30439184
30809260 31489195
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