|
Mesoscale Discussion 152 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120036Z - 120200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY
BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND TALLAHASSEE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
BUT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO LOW/LIMITED TO
NECESSITATE A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORM CELL WHICH INITIATED
NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO TRACK
INLAND ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
BOUNDARY EAST OF PANAMA CITY. IT APPEARS THIS STORM COULD PROGRESS
INTO AREAS NEAR OF JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AND
RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A 40-50
KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY...
AND CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO COULD
FORM OFFSHORE...AND INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING INLAND ALONG A
SIMILAR...BUT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH PATH...NEAR PANAMA CITY...INTO THE
01-03Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 02/12/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29698653 29968632 30168586 30278546 30348477 30218444
30018492 29928554 29678621 29698653
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|