ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211922 
SPC MCD 211922 
LAZ000-MSZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN LA...FAR SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 211922Z - 212115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS DEEPENING ACROSS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN LA. A BRIEF TORNADO RISK
ALSO EXISTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

DISCUSSION...SW/NE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED FROM
THE LA COAST ACROSS A WNW/ESE-ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30
N LCH TO LFT TO 20 S MSY AS OF 19Z. BASED ON 18Z LCH/LIX RAOBS IT
APPEARS THAT MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE REQUIRED FOR
SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HAS PRIMARILY DEEPENED ALONG/NE
OF THE FRONT THUS FAR...SUGGESTING TRANSITION BETWEEN SURFACE TO
ELEVATED ROOTED PARCELS IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE. AS SUCH...ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 02/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31479168 31529145 31489075 31389038 31099009 30558991
            30039022 29809029 29779083 29969141 30279225 30399244
            30699236 31119210 31479168 

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