MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262317Z - 270115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CLOSELY MONITORED DEVELOPING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
   GENERALLY NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN SC INTO NC. SHOULD
   UPDRAFTS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MATURE...A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   MAY EXIST /PERHAPS EVEN WITH A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING/...SUCH
   THAT A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED PENDING INCREASING TRENDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE INCIPIENT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAS
   RECENTLY INCREASED /SINCE 2215Z-2230Z/ WITH A NARROW/BUT DEEPENING
   CU FIELD IN VICINITY OF I-95 IN EASTERN SC/FAR SOUTHERN NC. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT IS COINCIDENT WITH A TRIPLE POINT VIA A 1000 MB SURFACE
   LOW AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING /ACROSS NC
   PIEDMONT/ WARM FRONT AND A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT
   /ACROSS COASTAL SC/. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR
   ARE IN THE LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG
   SBCAPE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NC/FAR EASTERN SC. WHILE WINDS ARE
   TENDING TO VEER JUST ABOVE TO SURFACE...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
   AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS /MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT/ COULD
   YIELD A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE...WHILE
   DAMAGING WINDS WOULD OTHERWISE BE A CONCERN. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
   STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY RELATE TO A TREND TOWARD WEAKENING
   CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC
   UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE INVERSION/S/
   ALOFT. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...SOME
   DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS
   EVENING...EVEN WITH A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING WITH LOW-TOPPED
   SHOWERS/TSTMS.
   
   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/26/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   33387930 34677949 35477870 35677662 34517712 33387930