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Mesoscale Discussion 261 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX THROUGH SCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...
VALID 092134Z - 092300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SCNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX
NEXT FEW HOURS. SWD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD CNTRL TX REMAINS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
FROM NCNTRL TX THROUGH SCNTRL OK AS THEY INTERCEPT AXIS OF 800-1500
J/KG MLCAPE. BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT
WITHIN THE LINE WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KT. NWD EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS LIMITED BY A MORE STABLE
REGIME...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD CNTRL TX...A STRONGER CAP
EXISTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE. PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO THREAT
COULD UNDERGO SOME INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM SE OK INTO
NCTRL/NERN TX AS STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
..DIAL.. 03/09/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 31759959 32939851 33929805 34959743 35089626 34419585
31929745 31359833 31199989 31759959
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