MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL VA...SERN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161955Z - 162130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THIN
   BAND OF TSTMS CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A THIN PRE-FRONTAL ARC OF TSTMS HAS INTENSIFIED DURING
   THE PAST HOUR IN PARTS OF SERN WV. BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED OWING
   TO GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS. BUT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S ARE SUPPORTING STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...SETUP WILL
   FAVOR TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION/SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS THREAT WILL BE SUSTAINED GIVEN
   THE MEAGER DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT WITH
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A TSTM CLUSTER MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL VA
   UNTIL THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING DIMINISHES THE THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 03/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...
   
   LAT...LON   38277964 38397880 38277813 38067780 37607763 37167815
               36747938 36687987 36748084 37038133 37418154 37608134
               38277964