ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231532 
SPC MCD 231532 
LAZ000-TXZ000-231630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231532Z - 231630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WHILE EARLIER SEVERE STORM COMPLEX ACROSS NERN TX HAS
WEAKENED...THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WOULD
LIKELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT IF IT OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CLUSTER OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTION RESPONSIBLE
FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL REPORTS ACROSS NRN TX EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO
EXTREME E TX AND LA FOR NEW OR REINVIGORATED CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED NEAR THE GULF COAST FROM
GLS NEWD ACROSS LCH TO BTR. ELEVATED STORMS OVER NRN TX REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RECENT FOCUSED ASCENT BEING AIDED
BY A LEADING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER NRN TX. THIS LEADING
DISTURBANCE IS AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
SEWD FROM CO THAT WILL DRIVE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS LA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE LEADING LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MAY STILL ACT TO PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION. NEW STORMS HAVE
FORMED AND APPEAR TO BE INCREASING OVER ANDERSON COUNTY TX
SUPPORTING THE ABOVE REASONING. THUS...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..CARBIN/HART.. 03/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31089467 31229534 32119554 32569500 32859383 32869313
            32859246 32739168 32379150 31769181 31509250 31089467 

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