ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 231616 SPC MCD 231616 FLZ000-GAZ000-231745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231616Z - 231745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN GA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SVR THREAT. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE...OR WW57 MAY BE EXTENDED WWD. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT LYING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MOBILE BAY TO S OF TLH. A WIND-SHIFT AXIS INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT 20 WNW AAF AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE GULF OFFSHORE WATERS. STRENGTHENING STORMS APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED TO THIS AXIS 55-65 SSW PFN...AND ARE TRACKING ENEWD TOWARD THE COAST. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION...AND MAY BE A MANIFESTATION OF A SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH SOME INCREASE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER INLAND. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST -- 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8-8.5 C/KM PER TLH/LIX RAOBS -- WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS AS 40-55 KT OF DEEP SHEAR RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SRH SUCH THAT SUSTAINED STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT OR THE SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT COULD CONDITIONALLY POSE A RISK FOR SVR WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THIS IS REFLECTED BY TLH VWP DATA THAT INDICATE 250-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH. SHOULD GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOME MORE LIKELY...A WW MAY BECOME REQUIRED...OR WW57 MAY BE EXTENDED WWD. ..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30728420 30188412 29848447 29688513 29908544 30278586 30398666 30518691 30898666 30958506 30728420 NNNN