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Mesoscale Discussion 314 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE...SW GA...AND EXTREME SE AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240812Z - 240945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH AN INCREASING
SEVERE STORM RISK AS THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR SPREADS SLOWLY INLAND.
AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SE AL...AND SW GA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH BY 09-10Z.
DISCUSSION...INLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GULF BUOYS SHOW VEERING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SW AL INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG THIS BAND...WITH A
TENDENCY FOR DEEPENING OF THE CONVECTION WITH TIME...AND STRONG
DRYING FROM THE W ABOVE THE SURFACE PER PW IMAGERY. THIS BAND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWN BY THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR...AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SOME INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE...WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST AND
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 F. THE MODIFIED 06Z TLH SOUNDING
SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A TORNADO RISK WHERE STORMS INTERACT
WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
..THOMPSON.. 03/24/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29688428 29358508 29568586 29988625 30428622 31158577
31418533 31358480 31178421 31058397 30438383 29688428
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