Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 314
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 314 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE...SW GA...AND EXTREME SE AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240812Z - 240945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH AN INCREASING
   SEVERE STORM RISK AS THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR SPREADS SLOWLY INLAND. 
   AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SE AL...AND SW GA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH BY 09-10Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...INLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GULF BUOYS SHOW VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SW AL INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...W OF A
   SURFACE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
   BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG THIS BAND...WITH A
   TENDENCY FOR DEEPENING OF THE CONVECTION WITH TIME...AND STRONG
   DRYING FROM THE W ABOVE THE SURFACE PER PW IMAGERY.  THIS BAND
   MATCHES WELL WITH THE ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOWN BY THE
   PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR...AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE
   SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SOME INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   FL PANHANDLE...WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST AND
   TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 F.  THE MODIFIED 06Z TLH SOUNDING
   SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.  THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
   AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A TORNADO RISK WHERE STORMS INTERACT
   WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 03/24/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   29688428 29358508 29568586 29988625 30428622 31158577
               31418533 31358480 31178421 31058397 30438383 29688428 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities