ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310954 
SPC MCD 310954 
OKZ000-TXZ000-311130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OK...N-CENTRAL/NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 310954Z - 311130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL-ERN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA -- S-CENTRAL/SERN OK AND
PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX.  MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE PRIMARILY ALONG
AND BEHIND STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED AT 0930Z FROM
WEAK LOW OVER NERN OK...SWWD ACROSS PVJ-DUC-LBB.  CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL OK HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY MRGL SVR HAIL OF 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER REPORTS PER NSSL-PING DATA.  COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS REGION...ITS BAROCLINICITY REINFORCED BY
OUTFLOW FROM SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS NOW FOUND ALONG AND
BEHIND BOUNDARY.  FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY
LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM MID-50S TO
LOW-60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND MUCAPE 1000-1500
J/KG...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FAVORABLE FOR
MAINTAINING TSTM ORGANIZATION.  CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE
WITH RESULTING MCS CROSSING RED RIVER INTO N-CENTRAL/NE TX NEAR AND
W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER/SERN OK CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS/KERR.. 03/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34939945 34779888 34799789 34989693 35289617 34679559
            34049487 33329479 32929560 33019692 33739898 34939945 

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