MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AND MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 311800Z - 311900Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS
   THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   LIKELY WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
   OVER THE PAST FEW HRS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
   ACROSS CNTRL TX. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF A SWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT...AND STORMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN PRIMARILY ROOTED
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   EXPECTED TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE
   COLD FRONT...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. DESPITE A RELATIVE
   WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/...MIDLEVEL WLYS
   WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /E.G. 30-40 KTS/ TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION /GIVEN
   BOUNDARY-PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR/ INTO A
   CLUSTER OR FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS
   THAT MAY DEVELOP.
   
   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   29429832 29499958 29560118 29810144 29910158 30360125
               30720034 30949922 30939807 31099703 31139612 31109547
               30349530 29809534 29339648 29429832