ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020039 
SPC MCD 020039 
TXZ000-020145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON APR 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78...

VALID 020039Z - 020145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED WITH REGARD TO THE NEED FOR
DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE WITH THE EXPECTED SEWD EVOLUTION OF A SMALL
TSTM CLUSTER FROM THE ERN PORTION OF WW 78...BUT A WW ISSUANCE
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS HAVE LARGELY MERGED INTO A
CONSOLIDATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER NWRN TX. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN OR REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER IN THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS NOW
SUGGESTING MLCAPE HAS DECREASED BELOW 500 J/KG. A NOTABLE DRY POCKET
IS ALSO EVIDENT IN GOES PW DATA...WITH MORE ROBUST GULF MOISTURE
HOLDING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY SWD. IN THE NEAR-TERM...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AND DECREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN
AMPLITUDE AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES SEWD THIS EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...A
S/SELY LLJ WILL YIELD INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHOULD A
CLUSTER BE ONGOING COULD SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE WIND/HAIL
THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 04/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33749913 33179863 32349886 32219924 32720026 33050069
            33450069 33819993 33749913 

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