ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042011 
SPC MCD 042011 
FLZ000-042115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 042011Z - 042115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF TO MOVE INTO
THE FL KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED...AND IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE
TOWARD THE KEYS...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS S FL HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. THE 18Z RAOB FROM MIAMI AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER EXTREME S FL THAN FARTHER NORTH
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATED A COUPLE OF
INVERSIONS...ONE JUST BELOW 850 MB AND ANOTHER NEAR 700 MB.
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE SRN END OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE ERN GULF EXTENDS DOWN TO ABOUT 24.75 DEG LAT WITH A SKELETAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER SW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
INVERSIONS INDICATED ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING COULD LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY
FURTHER SWD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...EVEN IF STORMS WITHIN THE LINE DO
NOT DEVELOP ANY FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING END COULD STILL THREATEN
THE KEYS. THE VWP NEAR KEY WEST SHOWS 45 KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24748138 24938083 25218034 24758058 24568123 24748138 

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