MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 072042Z - 072245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...PROBABILITIES FOR STORM INITIATION AND CONTINGENT STORM
   COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   --INITIALLY OVER W-CNTRL KS.  A CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS
   A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT.  THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   WATCH BEING ISSUED IS HIGHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED
   CU FIELD OVER NWRN KS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN WEAK
   TSTMS NEAR THE NWRN KS/SWRN NE BORDER.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   SLOW/GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF A RESERVOIR OF MID-UPPER 50S
   DEWPOINTS INTO S-CNTRL KS FROM N-CNTRL OK.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
   BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIER WELL-MIXED
   AIRMASS OVER NWRN KS TENDS TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MORE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY FARTHER S OVER S-CNTRL KS.
   
   STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE AS THE DRYLINE
   CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER WRN KS LENDING AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE NWD ADVANCING MOISTURE.  THIS
   WILL COINCIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.  GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
   AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/...A CONDITIONAL LARGE
   HAIL/WIND THREAT EXISTS.  IF A NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WERE TO
   DEVELOP PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A
   SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY COULD EXIST FOR A TORNADO.
   
   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   37530006 38940016 39329920 39149832 38019785 37499826
               37279898 37530006