MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL AZ...S-CNTRL/SWRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 081736Z - 081930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS.
   OVERALL WEAK/TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION PRECLUDES THE NEED
   FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
   MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN NV AND
   INTO NRN AZ. AS IT DOES...A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED OVER SW NV AT
   17Z...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD. STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT OVER THE LEFT EXIT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN AZ AND S-CNTRL/SWRN NV
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCANT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE FROM
   200-400 J PER KG/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE...BUT
   GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ROBUST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW
   STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIMITED STORM
   STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
   
   LAT...LON   34281188 34221235 34271268 34431301 34591311 34751318
               34991319 35241310 35521294 36231262 36691236 37751128
               38101093 38331051 38421018 38460980 38400952 38260937
               38010930 37670937 37290951 36550992 35641046 34921097
               34281188