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Mesoscale Discussion 411 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091914Z - 092115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.
DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS TX INTO
WRN OK. ALONG THIS FRONT...OCCASIONAL CU HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED AS SOURCE AIR GETS UNDERCUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR
MASS HAS BEEN CAPPED.
HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CHANGING CHARACTER TO THE
CU FIELDS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK NEAR THE FRONT. A DEEPER GROUPING
OF TCU HAS FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE HOTTER AIR ACROSS NWRN
TX...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
WHERE CAPPING IS NEGLIGIBLE. MORE RECENTLY...STABLE WAVE CLOUDS HAVE
MIXED ACROSS W CNTRL AND SWRN OK...SUGGESTING THE CAP IS BEING
LIFTED THERE AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND COOLING IN THE CAPPING LAYER...STORM INITIATION WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN REGARD TO LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION IS
THE TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG
IT...ORPHANING THE INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/09/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33920012 35109886 36669820 37039795 37179753 37229705
37179683 37029646 36709626 36429624 35659648 34029733
33209789 32809848 32669915 32719969 32889992 33380014
33920012
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