MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091914Z - 092115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS TX INTO
   WRN OK. ALONG THIS FRONT...OCCASIONAL CU HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND
   DISSIPATED AS SOURCE AIR GETS UNDERCUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR
   MASS HAS BEEN CAPPED.
   
   HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CHANGING CHARACTER TO THE
   CU FIELDS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK NEAR THE FRONT. A DEEPER GROUPING
   OF TCU HAS FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE HOTTER AIR ACROSS NWRN
   TX...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
   WHERE CAPPING IS NEGLIGIBLE. MORE RECENTLY...STABLE WAVE CLOUDS HAVE
   MIXED ACROSS W CNTRL AND SWRN OK...SUGGESTING THE CAP IS BEING
   LIFTED THERE AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...AND COOLING IN THE CAPPING LAYER...STORM INITIATION WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN REGARD TO LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION IS
   THE TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG
   IT...ORPHANING THE INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE
   CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
   
   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   33920012 35109886 36669820 37039795 37179753 37229705
               37179683 37029646 36709626 36429624 35659648 34029733
               33209789 32809848 32669915 32719969 32889992 33380014
               33920012