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Mesoscale Discussion 577
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 291638Z - 291815Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   TO JUSTIFY A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE 80S OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
   IN THE LOW 60S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
   THE COAST. THE WARM/MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY
   COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
   IN ADDITION...THE WARMING SURFACE AIRMASS IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPENING CUMULUS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
   INDICATE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES BELOW 30 KT. THUS...DISORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE
   THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GARNER/HART.. 04/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   27838212 29748156 26717999 25458034 25588102 26528155
               27838212 
   
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