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Mesoscale Discussion 579
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 292305Z - 300100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUST EXISTS WITH ANY
   CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER DISCUSSION AREA NEXT 2-3
   HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF INSOLATION STABILIZES BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
   MASS.  POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED AND CONDITIONAL
   FOR WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NW DDC...SUPPORTED BY SMALL
   CYCLONIC GYRE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES.  THIS LOW
   MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT ENEWD-NEWD ALONG DISSIPATING WARM FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA.  E OF LOW...PRONOUNCED
   CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN FROM BARTON COUNTY KS SWWD ACROSS AMA
   AREA.  THIS BOUNDARY CORRESPONDS TO CORRIDOR OF CONVERGENCE
   INDICATED BY AUTOMATED MESOANALYSES.  VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
   COLLOCATED/BKN LINE OF TCU...HIGH-BASED ATTM GIVEN DISTANCE FROM
   CLOUDS TO SHADOWS.  PERSISTENT/THICKENING AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
   LOCATED NEAR DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTERSECTION OVER BARTON COUNTY
   AS OF 2245Z.  
   
   MAIN CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MRGL/CONDITIONAL NEAR-TERM SVR POTENTIAL
   IS WITH TOWERS OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH HAVE GREATEST ACCESS TO BOTH
   INTENSE DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
   MOISTURE TO THEIR E OVER ERN KS.  ALTHOUGH 12Z CONVENTIONAL NETWORK
   RAOBS REVEALED STG EML-RELATED CAPPING OVER THIS
   REGION...MODIFICATION TO 17Z SPECIAL LMN RAOB SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
   AT LEAST BRIEF TSTMS WITH ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED MLCAPE 700-800 J/KG
   AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WITH NEARLY 1500 J/KG DCAPE. 
   CINH STRENGTHENS FARTHER NE ALONG FRONTOLYTIC ZONE WHERE HEATING IS
   WEAKER AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...WHILE NOT LARGE FROM 0-1 KM...HAVE GROWN OVER THIS
   REGION BASED ON VWP/PROFILER TRENDS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS
   LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.  35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE
   ALSO POINTS TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF ANY TSTMS...BUT
   POTENTIAL LONGEVITY OF ANY CONVECTION IS IN QUESTION GIVEN EXPECTED
   INCREASE IN MLCINH WITH TIME.
   
   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 04/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   38029894 38639899 39089888 39429866 39679761 39319715
               38449743 38069785 38029894 
   
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Page last modified: April 30, 2013
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