MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NEB...SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161825Z - 162000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...ASCENT OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION
   SURROUNDING AN MCV CENTERED OVER N-CNTRL NEB IS MAINTAINING
   CONVECTION ALONG A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OVER FAR WRN PARTS OF THE
   MCD AREA. THE INFLUX OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS S OF A DEVELOPING WARM
   FRONT WILL FOSTER MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   LAYERS FROM S TO N. AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT
   MOVES EWD/NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB AND SERN SD. AND...WITH
   LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE MCV AND ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED SVR
   WIND/HAIL MAY ENSUE. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS
   TO BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF EVEN RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/GREATER
   INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM. FURTHERMORE...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY
   EVENTUALLY OUTPACE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A
   DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.
   
   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   41269845 41489867 42079824 42969810 43079753 42709676
               42059642 41489671 41199788 41269845